After the announcement of another fine set of results at the Porkers Picks AGM, (26 points profit from 273 bets, 8% ROI), we are going to diversify on the Euros.
Breaking one of the most fundamental rules of proftable betting, we’re going to put at least one bet a day and see if we can end the torunament in profit.
Since it is day 1, we’ll also put bet on choice of winners. I’m avoiding France, best squad, but shortest price and have feeling they will fall short. It’s a bit of a lottery and I struggle o chose between Spain, Germany and Portugal, but at outset I’m going to put a bet on Portugal at 9/1 and Ronaldo top scorer at 15/1
0.5 points – 0-0 @ 11/1
0.5 points – Turkey @ 8/1
0.5 points – Portugal @ 9/1
0.5 points – Ronaldo @ 15/1
How utterly delightful to sit back and watch two teams scrapping for one of the biggers prizes in Scottish Football – a place in the SPFL.
Dundee have big game players and are a bit too big a price for the first leg at home, especially with a few fans back in the ground.
Lafferty could have a big influence – either by scoring or being sent off.
1 point – Dundee @ 16/5
A wee play off Day Double with Kelty expected to easily take care of Brechin and a cagey Airdrie Morton first leg draw.
With wee baldy in charge I also can’t resist a small flutter on 0-0 at 12/1.
1 point – Kelty-1 @ 19/20
1 point – Airdrie-Morton draw @ 12/5
0.5 points – Airdrie-Morton 0-0 @ 12/1
Final day of the season and a last chance to add some more bacon to the pile. Though there may be some more opportunites in the pay offs or Cup final.
Last day selections are straight forward – we look for value on the teams with something to play for. Got Kilmarnock at 11/10 and they are strongly fancied. If they can’t beat a Hamilton side already relegated then they don’t deserve to stay up. Incidentally, last time Hamilton were in this position they put 10 past Morton to wipe out the goal difference. They’d need 9 here without reply which is a ridiculous notion. However why would they not at least try, especially since they actually done it last time?
Second one I’m not so sure about but we’re getting 11/4 Ross County. They only need a draw so perhaps betting draw or win is the bet here, but I’ve taken the highest value. Motherwell are a far better side, but the motivation that comes with relegation and maybe losing your job is massive. The SPFL is going to be a tough league next year with Hearts and maybe Dundee coming up – how motivated are Motherwell going to be to keep Kilmarnock? Dross County would be an ideal Sacrificial Pig to offer up next year…
1 point – Kimarnock @ 11/10
1 point – Ross County @ 11/4
Not much of the season left, midweeks flops stunted a strong finish to the season but we can still find a couple of scraps to feed on before we’re done.
Strongly fancied are Celtic against a Hibs side who surely don’t give a toss. So Celtic have nothing to play for either but will be a bit more motiviated to finish the season with a win to prevent any further abuse from knuckle draggers. With a Scottish Cup final and third place in the bag Hibs will surely be simply avoiding injury here. 7/10 is not great but I’d be shocked if Hibs take anything from this.
To complete a Deadly Double, I’m goping for a risky Raith. Dundee are hot and cold but with a 3-0 win in the bag they won’t be too sure how to approach this. Raith are a good side and will clearly go there to attack. If they get a goal they could certainly end up winning the game, and Dundee would be perfectly happy with a one goal defeat.
Last minute goals stopped anotehr big win last night but we still come out in profit. Back for more tonight and taking a bit of a gamble on 4 outsiders – all worthwhile.
Saints have drifted a bit too much to 7/2 away to Killie. The only question is how much are they going to be up for it but I think they’ll be reasonably professional and keen to finish season on a high after recent disappointment. Having said that just seen the team and captain replaced by a rookie centre half – not a great sign.
Hamilton are no more shite than Dross County and they have to win so 11/4 is worth the chance.
Aberdeen might catch Hibs a bit off guard with their Scottish Cup final coming up. Aberdeen have been poor but it is rare to see them at more than 2/1 at home.
Lastly, a draw is always highly possible in first leg play offs – but is still the outside bet for the first leg between Raith and Dundee. Hard to separate them, both might be happy to go to Dens PArk with a draw, Raith like to hit on counter.
A healthily priced set of selections:
1 point – St Mirren @ 7/2
1 point – Hamilton @ 11/4
1 point – Aberdeen @ 21/10
1 point – Raith-Dundee draw @ 9/4
1 point – Cove Rangers @ 2/1
1 point – Dumbarton @ 7/5
1 point – Elgin City @ 11/5
1 point – Morton @ 11/10
For the second week running I’m putting money on a draw, actually 2 this week.
I generally avoid draws as they are the bookies friend, however play off first legs are cagey affairs and there is little to choose between these sides. In both Montrose v Morton and Stranraer v Dumbarton, all 4 sides wont be too unhappy to take a draw to teh second leg, and with no fans to spur them on we could not too many chances taken, 0-0’s or 1-1’s likely. Add to the equation that wee Gus is in charge of Morton and they’ve drawn their last 5 games and it add more weight to teh argument.
To complete the Tasty Treble I’m also going against what has served us well this season and backing the shorter priced favourite in Cove Rangers. As the season draws to a close I think we are seeing things play a bit closer to form. No crowds have less of an impact as the seriousness of the occasions give the players all the motivation they need. Still, going by form you’d think Airdrie are a good price, however Cove have a few big game players in there, one even having played in an FS Cup Final. I think the Teuchters will be desperate to take something into the second leg so I am going to side with them to do that at evens.
That’s the Tasty Treble folks!
1 point – Cove Rangers @ evens
1 point – Montrose-Morton @ 5/2
1 point – Stranraer-Dumbarton @ 12/5
1 point – Draw – Falkirk v Airdrie @ 14/5
1 point – Dumbarton @ 5/3
1 point – Elgin @ 12/5
1 point – Raith @ 12/5
Lavishly priced treble today folks as we focus on the dregs of Scottish football srapping for survivial. Marvellous!
Hamilton away to a Saints side who have their focus on the Scottish Cup semi final shoudn’t really be 5/1. They were unlucky not to win last time at Paisley. Compare that to Motherwell at home to a fairly equally poor Kilmanorck side who are without without Lafferty but still fairly strong favourites. It means we get Motherwell at home at 11/5. They should still be quite up for it, they have fuck all else to focus on lockdown and only a few matches left.
To complete the Tasty Treble we have Dumbarton at just under 2/1 away to Clyde. This is a relegation showdown, and could go either way really but Clyde are pricved as favourites, I think it shoud be other way round. Probably depends if Badwillie turns up.
That’s your Tasty Treble. To make a 4 fold Dross County are just about worth it at 19/10. Would have hoped for a slightly better price but if they are any use at all they should be able to do something against a fairly poor Utd side who will have little interest in the game.
That’s a 55/1 treble, and a 150/1 4 fold! 🐖
1 point – Hamilton @ 5/1
1 point – Motherwell @ 11/5
1 point – Dumbarton @ 23/12
1 point – Ross County @ 19/10