The importance of getting in early shown again this week, with some great value bets disappearing as the market caught up.
Hibs remain my value bet of the weekend.. although Saints have finally brought in a striker, injuries to key players and a strong Hibs side will make this just a bit too soon for the Saints revival. Hibs win.
Making up the Tasty Treble are Stirling, (4/6), and Clyde (6/10). I am loathe to pick them at those prices after they were both 5/6 earlier in the week, but they are strongly fancied and might just still represent value.
For better value, Dundee Utd are certainly worth a punt at 2/1 at home to Ross County who are down as favourites for this match – I’d have it other way round.
Arbroath make a fancied 5 fold at 3/4, and Edinburgh City can add a bit more on top at 6/10… questionable value again, but Edinburgh have made a very strong start to the season.
Two value bets to finish – Annan at home at 15/4, and I’m being pig-headed and taking Dundee to finally break their duck against a poor Accies side – 21/10
3 points – Hibernain – 17/20
2 points – Stirling – 4/6
2 points – Clyde – 6/10
2 points – Dundee Utd – 2/1
2 points – Arboroath – 3/4
2 points – Edinburgh City – 6/10
1 point – Annan – 15/4
1 point – Dundee – 21/10
I see a couple of opportunities in the league cup tonight.
I doubt if Ayr will set themselves up to park the bus and I think we might see a repeat of the drubbing delivered last year at Somerset Park. A straight Rangers win is not worth it, but Rangers -2 at 7/5 is. I can’t see Rangers failing to win this by at least 2, let’s hope it’s 3.
Celtic are under pressure tonight, but that is probably a good thing and I think they will take care of St Johnstone fairly comfortably. From their line up, it is clear they are right up for this one. 2/5 is stingy, but is enough value for me.
2 points – Rangers-2 @ 7/5
2 points – Celtic @ 2/5
Cowdenbeath are a stronger outfit than last year and should see off whipping boys Albion Rovers with room to spare
Hearts are great value at 4/6. Livi have been punching above their weight and are a tough outfit but will find their level
And I’m taking Arbroath to complete the Tasty Treble by having enough in them to take care of Stenhousemuir. Some caution here I exoect Stenny to improve on last year but Arbroath should not be too strong.
Although Morton Dunfermline is a tough one to call, I’d see Morton as favourites and prices of 2/1 + are stupid value. Morton to win for a higher priced 4 fold.
Add Clyde at home to make 5. Elgin will be tough opponents but everything going well down at Cumbernauld – home win
Also worth a punt are Queen of the South at 11/4 against a beleaguered Patrick side and a 7/2 offeringon Inverness, a team on a 16 game unbeaten run – pretty good going for this league.
I’m giving up on Dundee this week, but only just. At almost 4/1 they just miss out on selection along with Aberdeen, Ayr and St Mirren.
2 points- Hearts 4/6
2 points – Arbroath 19/20
2 points – Cowdenbeath 7/10
2 points – Morton 41/20
2 points – Clyde 3/4
1 point – Queen of the South 11/4
1 point – Inverness 7/2
Are Ayr the real deal? Today will go a long way to finding out if they are really challengers for a promotion place and I’m backing them at 6/5 to continue their run against what seems like a poor Falkirk side.
We got a good return on Hamilton away earlier in the season, (albeit with a scrape of fortune), and I think they are value here away to Livingston. It’s a toss up to pick the winner here on the plastic pitch, and Hamilton at 4/1 is great value.
Arbroath complete Porkers Tasty Treble – 4/7 is good enough, they should take care of their neighbours Forfar at home.
Elgin away to a poor Berwick side can make a fab 4 fold.
Aside from that, I have a few smaller stakes value bets, the Ayr question can also apply to Queen of the South. Today will be an interesting test against the strongest squad in the league – 12/5 is enough to risk a bet
Cowdenbeath, St Johnstone and dare I say it, Dundee, are all worth small punts at high prices.
2 points – Ayr 6/5
2 points – Hamilton 4/1
2 points – Arbroath 4/7
1 point – Elgin evens
1 point – Cowdenbeath 6/1
1 point – Queen of the South 12/5
1 point – St Johnstone 11/4
0.5 points – Dundee 14/1
International week… yawn.. I’ll spend most of my time relaxing in my pigsty rather than watching friendlies… speed ye back real football.
There’s not much to choose from, but there is some value to spot… just don’t put the mortgage on it. Cup games are never easy to predict, particularly ones where teams from different countries are competing, but we’ll have a go.
Best value I can find is Alloa away at 7/2. They will be buoyed somewhat by the news that their outstanding manager Jim Goodwin is still with the club. Dundee Utd will play kids and reserves, Alloa are favourites for me here, and 7/2 is great value.
We are too late on the prices for Sligo at home to Livingston kids… already 1/4 but even that is value, as is Coleraine at 1/3 against Formantine in Oran Kearneys farewell match – good coupon fillers, or a good double at 4/6.
Lastly a couple of more risky cross border selections – I’ll take Falkirk at home to be too strong for Connahs Quey – they will be keen to win a match of any sort, and Dunfermline should be stronger than Boreham Wood… a bit of a stab in the dark there but the Boreham fans don’t seem too fussed by this competition and the 5000 or so Dunfermline fans can spur them on to victory down there.
2 points – Alloa 7/2
1 point – Falkirk 5/6
1 point – Dunfermline 7/4
3 points – Sligo Rovers, 1/4
3 points – Coleraine 1/3
St Mirren and Hearts polar opposites just now.. lots of confidence and positivity around a Hearts squad and support rallying behind their recovering manager. For the exact opposite – see St Mirren. Hearts were great value earlier in week at 5/7, I got them at 8/13, but even 1/2 now looks good value. Hearts to win with comfort is my nap of the day.
Arbroath and Dunfermline make up this weeks tasty treble.
Add Dundee Utd for a fancied 4-fold
…. and lastly, it seems I’ve not given up on Dundee yet… 2/1 at home is good enough. Add them to complete a famous 5… ?
3 points – Hearts 8/13
2 points – Dunfermline 11/8
2 points – Arbroath 3/5
2 points – Dundee Utd 3/4
2 points – Dundee 2/1
Want some more..?
1 point – Aberdeen 19/20
1 point – Hamilton 13/5
1 point – Hibs 5/6
1 point – Raith 5/6
1 point – Dumbarton 6/5
Maybe over cooking the ? a bit there…. if we get them all we’ll retire..