Murray Misery

Falkirk are under pressure already to ensure they get 3 points on the road at Airdrie. However there are signs of pressure also for Ian Murray after an indifferent start to the season and a pummeling last week at the hands of East Fife. Falkirk have by far the strongest set of players here and are worth a bet at evens.

The other strong fancy in the Championship is Queen of the South, who will have Steven Dobbie back and possibly some decent loan signings. They should be too strong for Alloa, and 13/10 is generous.

To make up the Tasty treble, I’m going for Forfar who have came in a bit to 11/10, (and are still moving). They are one of the strongest sides in League 1 so should have enough for the newly promoted Clyde if they can keep Goodwillie quiet.

For a 4-fold, we can plump for Utd at home to Dundee in the derby, with a big crowd behind them they will fully expect to win that one.

Couple of outsiders to finish – an underrated Queens Park away to Cove Rangers, and a positive St Mirren side against the completely unpredictable Livingston. In both cases, the high prices are worth a small flutter.

Good luck folks! ?

31-Aug 2 points – Falkirk @ evens
31-Aug 2 points – Queen of the South @ 13/10
31-Aug 1 point – Forfar @ 6/5
30-Aug 1 point – Dundee Utd @ 6/5
31-Aug 1 point – Queens Park @ 4/1
31-Aug 0.5 points – St Mirren @ 7/2

Pigs Banquet

Feast your eyes on these folks, five of the best to brighten your Saturday!

In the Premiership we are taking Ross County to keep their momentum going and beat Livingston at home. Wont be easy game, but home win expected at 5/4. I also like Hibs at home against St Johnstone. Hibs have made some boosting signings recently, and St Johnstone are declaring a corner turned after a decent second half display salvaged a draw at home against Livingston – hardly inspiring. 3/4 is generous, Hibs please.

In Championship, I’m taking Ayr to beat Queen of the South at home on the strength of their performances so far, though Queen of the South are still very unpredictable.

The bottom league as usual sees two of my strongest fancies. Queens Park at home can take care of an Elgin side who have been getting a lot of credit whilst Queens Park slip under the radar. And Albion Rovers look a far stronger side this year and can heap more misery on Brechin City. For a Tasty Treble out that five I’d plump for Hibs, Albion Rovers and Queens Park.

Lastly, and I whisper this one.. St Mirren at 15/1 at home to Rangers. Don’t go risking your mortgage on it, but at that price it is worth a small wager. Saints are full of confidence right now, and Rangers are sandwiched between two hug European games which is immediately followed by teh first Old Firm meeting. And really, 15/1 at home – are Saints really that bad?!

In summary:

2 points – Albion Rovers @ 13/10
2 points – Queens Park @ 13/10
2 points – Ross County @ 5/4
2 points – Hibernian @ 3/4
2 points – Ayr @ Evens
0.5 points – St Mirren @ 15/1

Elgin pig of the bunch

The importance of getting on early is evident again this week, with prices drifting in and some out of value.

One price I did catch was Elgin City at 6/4 but it wasn’t around long. It’s no sure thing as Stenhousemuir will be one of the stronger sides in the league but Elgin are fancied and 6/4 makes it worthwhile.

To complete the Tasty Treble, we have to go to the cup, which is always shaky ground. However a Saturday game at the start if the season should help reduce complacency and I’m going for two favourites. Livingston have made some decent signings to be fair and have just brought in a quality centre half, not sure how they do it really. Although Forfar have started well, their performances have been up and down, I think they will drop out here. Last one is Ross County. Thistle at Firhill wont be easy, but at almost evens, (again missed 11/10… ), it’s hard to ignore their form.

Queens Park and Peterhead are fancied, but have drifted in so strongly they have squeezed all the value, however we will risk 2 more small wagers on a couple of outsiders. Albion Rovers are worth a punt at 3/1, and in the battle of the plastic teams, 7/1 for a Hamilton side who turned over a troubled Killie side with 10 men only last week seems a bit too high.

In summary:

2 points – Elgin City @ 6/4
2 points – Livingston @ 7/10
1 point – Ross County @ 19/20
1 point – Albion Rovers @ 3/1
1 point – Hamilton @ 7/1

Pigs Eleven

A bumper set of selections today with a total of eleven offering some value – and that was dropping Morton off the list, who will no doubt win now!

Hearts the pick of the bunch for me. I think Ross County will do fairly well this season, but Hearts at Tynecastle should be better than evens here. Forfar can keep momentum and top place by beating Stranraer at home and Elgin City are a very favourable 16/5 to win at Annan and complete a very Tasty Treble indeed..

Edinburgh City got pumped 5-0 last week, and picked up a couple of suspensions to boot but I still fancy them to get their show on the road this week by beating the free falling Brechin City at home.

After that, in the Premiership Rangers can maintain their good start at home on Sunday, and St Johnstone really have to beat Livingston or face meltdown. It’s a bit of a risky one but the result should give a good early signal for both teams this season. Three other homes worth backing – Inverness, Falkirk and Queens Park.

Lastly – a couple of outside handicap bets. Motherwell usually give the Old Firm a hard game at Fir Park, so I’m taking them at 5/2 to avoid defeat. And there is a positive vibe of anticipation around St Mirren who could take advantage of an Aberdeen side sandwiched between European games – St Mirren + 1 at 11/10 is the pick here.

That’s all folks! Happy Saturday! 🙂

3 points – Hearts @ 19/20
2 points – Elgin City @ 16/5
2 points – Forfar @ 10/11
2 points – Edinburgh City @ 21/20

1 point – Rangers @ 1/2
1 point – St Johnstone @ 7/5
1 point – Inverness @ 8/11
1 point – Falkirk @ 8/13
1 point – Queens Park @ 13/10

1 point – Motherwell + 1 @ 5/2
1 point – St Mirren + 1 @ 11/10

Diddy Cup Special!

Welcome to a special midweek edition of Porkers Picks covering the first round of the Challenge Cup, where we have the kids teams up against the men. Not even the big diddy teams have been entered into the draw yet so we really are down in the mud of Scottish Football where the pig likes it best.

This has been a happy hunting ground – though the market has caught up the last couple of years and there is not as much value to be had in betting all the senior teams. In fact last year some of the under 21 teams did quite well – Motherwell made the semi’s – however these occasions are exceptions.

I expect the men to largely triumph over the boys, so I am taking a blanket approach here and betting on all the senior teams against all the piglets. This may seem a tad lazy and ill-informed – but frankly we are ill-informed here. There is little information to be found on the teams, what line-ups they are likely to field, (will senior teams rest players, will under 21 teams play over age players?), however we’re betting on the broad theory here that senior men are going to be keen to avoid the embarrassment of being beaten by a bunch of inexperienced kids. I think we’ll do well enough across all 9 matches, and not one of these are odds on. I’m taking 2 points on SPFL teams and East Kilbride, (Saints will struggle to field any over age players), and 1 on the non-league teams. I think we’ll end the evening up, let’s see..

In detail:

2 points – Albion Rovers @ 9/5
2 points – Queens Park @ 31/10
2 points – Cove Rangers @ 13/10
2 points – Elgin City @ 6/4
2 points – East Kilbride @ 13/10
1 point – Brora Rangers @ 13/10
1 point – Fraserborough @ 6/4
1 point – Kelty Hearts @ 5/4
1 point – Formartine Utd @ 8/5
1 point – Berwick Rangers @ 51/10

Pigs Away!

It’s Pigs away for another year, and aways are the big feature in todays picks with 6 away picks out of 7.

The seasons starter Tasty Treble is long priced but high reward. In the Premiership, Livi are reaping way more respect than they have earned, and they have lost a number of their key players. Have we forgotten who they are? It’s the difficult second season for them, and first up is a tough test against a Motherwell side who I think could hit top 6 this year. Livi favourites? Nah, not for me. Motherwell at 21/10. Also in the Premiership Ross County can start their return with a win against the other Premiership imposters Hamilton.

In the Championship, I’m going for a surprise Morton victory away to Ayr Utd at 29/10. It’s a good price for a match up between two sides with contrasting starts to the season. Morton have recruited and started well, Ayr the reverse.

That’s your Tasty Treble!

For a 4 fold, another value away in Edinburgh City. Whilst Cove Rangers will be buzzing with their first ever match in the big leagues, Edinburgh City will be determined to lay a marker for the season – 5/2 seems generous.

Elsewhere, Rangers should be taking care of an out of sorts Killie, Forfar can spring a bit of a surprise on Airdrie, and in League 2, I’m putting a small wager on Queens Park who finished last season strongly and have started this one in similar fashion. Lastly Elgin, are just about worth a risk at almost even money at home to Cowdenbeath.

2 points – Motherwell @ 21/10
2 points – Ross County @ 19/20
2 points – Morton @ 29/10
2 points – Edinburgh City @ 5/2
1 point – Rangers @ 4/6
1 point – Forfar @ 9/5
1 point – Queens Park @ 21/10
1 point – Elgin City @ 19/20

Season 2019 / 2020 Predictions

As the new season looms, the Pig prepares to roast the bookies for another year. Although last year was a bit up and down, we finished the season strongly and ended up with a healthy profit, follow this link if you want to see more detail on last seasons performance.

Surely every sound minded football fan has to put some bets on at the start of a new season and the Pig is no different. Starting with the Premiership, there are a number of outrights here that are worth considering. This years title race is probably the first time in years where it might actually be worth putting a bet on the winner but there are a few other offers that catch my eye first.

Top of list is Kilmarnock to be bottom 6 at 27/20. Killie have lost their miracle worker in Stevie Clarke and how do you follow that? Answer is you don’t, and certainly not with an unknown Tally who has practically no experience of management and will know f*ck all about Scottish football. Me thinks Billy Bowie has tried to be too much of a smart-arse here, and 27/20 is outstanding value. In fact 66/1 to be relegated isn’t completely out of the question.

Talking of relegation, time will tell, but for me the prices are f*cked up. Ross County are favourites for the drop with St Mirren a close second. St Mirren I can understand as they have only half a team right now, but Ross County have momentum, a strong squad, and Roy McGregor. I think St Mirren still have a lot of business to do so they are a bit of an unknown, but my first picks for relegation would be Hamilton and Livingston. Livingston are a massive 8/1, and whilst they still look a decent side, (relatively speaking, for a diddy team), they have lost their most influential players and are worth a bet.

For the winner I am going for Rangers. I think it will be tight this year and the momentum behind Rangers could swing it. Both sets of fans are clearly a fickle bunch but Neil Lennon seems closer to the edge. If things start to go awry, (and for spoilt Celtic fans, awry means not pissing over everyone else in the league), then things could quickly turn sour. 9/4 Rangers is the pick here.

Moving down to the Championship is a bit easier for me. I think Dundee Utd are strong favourites here. Robbie Neilson finished last season well and has just bought the best striker in the league. I don’t see as strong a challenge as previous years. I don’t think Dundee will have enough to turn it around and go back up in one season – especially not with a rookie manager. Partick have started well, but… Gary Caldwell. My biggest concern is Inverness, always well marshaled by John Robertson. A good start and they could challenge. But at 9/4, it’s Dundee Utd for me.

League 1. Well Falkirk are the obvious picks, and you have to say will probably win it, but not worth backing at 4/7. They have the strongest squad by miles, but the pressure of the lower leagues has told on Dunfermline and Raith who were unable to get out quickly and Falkirk fans are probably the most negative bunch of moaning b@stards in Scotland – and that is saying something. So I don’t think they are a sure thing. So looking down the list for something worth backing, I’m ruling out Raith – they look to be a weakened side, with a manager who has already lost support. Airdrie and Forfar are both 14/1 at least with some bookies and I think they are decent outside bets. Even though Airdire have just turned full time, I’m going to risk a wager on Forfar at 14/1. It’s a long shot, but they have a strong looking squad, and have started the season well, getting through to next round of League Cup.

Last but not least, a happy hunting ground in League 2. Cove Rangers are hot favourites but I think they are overshot. First year in the professional leagues, they are going to need to be really good to win it at first time of asking. That leaves us with value on Edinburgh City who are my picks at 4/1. They have kept most of the side who led the league for much of last year, and added a bit more, (Alex Harris most notable) – I think they deserve to be favourites. For an outsider, Queens Park could be worth a punt. They finished last year strongly, and underperformed overall, and have started this season well. If they can start well, then 14/1 is worth a small risk.

I usually always add the winner of the English Premiership to complete the list but I’m going to skip to League 1 this year. I went for Liverpool last year, but I’m not so keen this year, have a feeling last year was the peak and I think Man City will retain. However I’m not backing them at current prices. Instead I’m going for Sunderland in League 1, primarily due to the influence of Jack Ross, now he has survived his first season. It’s risky of course – a bad start to the season and he’ll be gone by September but he is a top manager, and Sunderland are clearly the wealthiest side in the league so 7/2 is good.

That’s all folks – good luck for the season!