Month: August 2020

5 selections today – but I have to admit I’m not hugely confident about any of them so it’s small stakes today.

With very little to choose between teams outside of the Old Firm, (apart from Hamilton who are shit), and also without fans at matches, siding on the higher priced away teams seems like a sensible move. That thinking sees us tentatively take St Mirren, but we’d have a bit more conviction if Joe Shaugnessy was fit – he will be a big miss. Aberdeen are similar. Hibs have had a great start and winning breeds confidence – but they’ve been lucky. Aberdeen are probably stronger all round so 11/5 is worth a shot.

Both Kilmarnock and Livingston have been unfortunate so far this season and both with some new acquisitions are reasonably strong fancies to win their home fixtures against Dundee Utd and Ross County respectively, who are both punching above their weight. The value is not great but just enough.

Strongest fancy of the day, (but also shortest price), is Rangers to win to nil again, this time against Hamilton. Let’s not get blinded by Hamiltons lucky away win to Motherwell last week – it doesn’t make them any less pish than they were before. Rangers have not even let a single goal in yet – winning to nil seems like a very likely outcome, so 4/6 is good.

1 point – St Mirren @ 11/4
1 point – Kilmarnock @ 8/5
1 point – Livingston @ 11/10
1 point – Rangers win to nil @ 4/6
1 point – Aberdeen @ 11/5

I’m already thinking of my headline to do with the number 7, but hopefully I wont need it!

So for 6th game on the trot and with zero return, I am keeping faith with Motherwell.

The only bonus here is we get a more generous price on them defeating a bunch of plumbers from Northern Ireland. We have to overlook the bad Motherwell start and seemingly endless embarassmanet of Scottish teams in Europe but surely Motherwell cannot repeat the astonishing mess Kilmarnock made against the Welsh miners.

Win only is a bit short though – we can get Motherwell -1 at evens. I remain confident they can clean this up with a bit to spare.

I’ll refrain from doing same with Aberdeen at home to a bunch of hill climbers and stray goats from the Faroe Islands. They have much less value and a penchant for making catastrophic fuck-ups in Europe.

2 points – Motherwell – 1 @ evens

And not in a good way. We’ve selected Motherwell in all 5 fixtures this season, and have came out empty handed each time so far, surel;y this time at home to the hapless Hamilton?

Given their poor start, it’s far from a sure thing, however Motherwells performances have not matched their results. Of their 4 matches so far, they’ve been the more dominant side in 3 of them, including away to high flying Hibs last week. They started the week at closer to 1/3, but drifted out to 4/6 last night probably due to their poor results, presenting enough value for us to jump on. Strongly fancied.

In quite different circumstances, we’re going for St Mirren at home. Read the opposite of the above. This will make it 3 payouts on the trot, but Saints have arugably rode their luck a bit. Saints have looked solid, but they need to improve offensively or the results will catch up. New goalie Alnwick has been their star man in all 3 games. However Ross County have rode their luck as well with their only deserved vitory coming against Hamilton. With a new striker into to boost the mood, Saints should be favourites here. We’re taking them at 19/10, though you’ll eb lucky to get that price now.

Lastly, to complete a Tasty Treble we’ll take Celtic-1 at Tannadice at 4/5. Celtic can’t afford another slip up and need to get points on board so expect a solid performance.

2 points – Motherwell @ 4/6
1 point – St Mirren @ 19/10
1 point – Celtic-1 @ 4/5

No prizes for picking Bayern tonight, though their 1/4 price still seems like good value. Lyon have rode their luck, but that’s plenty. This side finished seventh in the French league.

Defensively they’re strong but not so much in attack. I don’t think it will be as big a walkover as the Barca farce, but Bayern to win to nil at 6/4 is the pick here. Manuel Neuer might have a couple of saves to make then we’re done.

1 point – Bayern to win to nil @ 6/4

Frustarting day yesterday on the domestic scene – winner coming from probably the least dominant side out of the 3 picks.

But the Europa League presents some opportuinties not to be missed!

Sevila are 9/4 to beat Man Utd – I’m really not sure why. Perhaps someone can explain this to me, but I can’t figure any reason why Man U should be strong favourites. To Qualify is also tempting at 5/4.

In the other semi tomorrow, Inter are one of Europes top sides right now and 4/5 is still worth some investment.

2 points – Sevilla @ 9/4
1 point – Inter @ 4/5

There’s snout to go on really and am tempted to leave the bank alone today but I’m going to take a bit of a punt on 3 Premiership games at small stakes.

Kilmarnock, St Mirren and Motherwell. Probably in that order. Killie have been unfortunate so far, I fancy Saints although their price has came in a bit much, and Motherwells price has drifted just enough to make them worth a chance.

1 point – Kilmarnock @ 6/4
1 point – St Mirren @ 13/8
1 point – Motherwell @ 18/5

So thanks to another Silly Boli we have less football to watch and are now just one stupid player away from Wee Krankie taking her baw hame. Unfortunately we had selections in both cancelled games.

Spare a thought for Aberdeen though. How come their game is cancelled? Seems Wee Krankie threw a strop and booted both games oot because BoliWally N’Dumbo flew off to Spain. Up till then Aberdeen game was on.

Anyway, leaves me with one selection. After twice being burnt by poor Motherwell performances I cautiously add them to the picks again. Looks like they have problems – but so do Livingston. Results will fluctuate, but Motherwell should be good enough to win their share of games this season and home to Livingston should be one of them so we will persist just a little longer for third time lucky.

I’m also going to add Rangers to win to nil against St Johnstone. Although I expect St Johnstone to make a bit more of a mark on the game, this bet has came up nicely in Rangers first two games this season, and with little sweat. Rangers look solid and professional and perhaps benefit in some ways from less knuckle draggers in Ibrox spouting brainless nonsense.

Over and snout!

?

2 points – Motherwell @ 13/10
2 points – Rangers win to nil @ 8/11

Well we made a bit of a pigs ear of yesterday, so we’re sniffing around for some bacon in the remaining two fixtures today.

At Ibrox, Saints will unapologetically park the bus and will be difficult to break down. They are 20/1 which is a but of an insult really. 0-0 is not impossible, and a small wager at 26/1 might be worth while. However far more likely Rangers will get at least one goal and they also look very solid defensively against a Saints side lacking in creativity. Rangers to win tro nil at 8/13 is worth a bet.

The other side of Old Firm are slightly different. Kille at home will be more offensive, and Celtics defence looked vulnerable last weekend. They were fortnuate to lose only 1 goal to Hamilton at Parkhead, (yes – Hamilton). I’m going to take them to win with Kille scoring also.

Double pays 7/2.

Picks:

1 point – Rangers to win to nil @ 8/13
1 point – Celtic to win BTTS @ 2/1

Well, we don’t even get 6 games to choose from today after the antics of the sheep, so we end up only able to muster one pick today.

Tight games on shitty plastic pitches at Livingston and Hamilton – not touching them.

There is possibly a bit of value in Kilmarnock and St Mirrens prices but these are long shots. I might have a couple of small wagers there, but nothing we want to get too invovled with.

Motherwell are the only match of interest here, and it’s by no means a sure thing. The book is out on Dundee Utd – can Shankland make the step up? I think he will, but this is probably his ceiling. Still, Utd are a side on the up and should carry some fresh-faced momentum.

However if we take our opening matches as a measure here, Utd didn’t cover themselves in glory, limping to a draw at home to a ten man St Johnstone side. Motherwell fared worse, suffering a surprise loss to Ross County after they were slow out the traps but then proceeded to dominate most of the match, missing a penalty and a host of other chances. In summary, Motherwell look a strong team this year, so 11/10 at home to one of the expecetd weaker teams in the division is worth taking.

In summary:

2 points – Motherwell @ 11/10

?

Rinse, repeat. New season, new format, new challenges – same old Porkers Picks!

A full audit review of last season’s results will be released in due course, but I can’t be arsed right now. Enough to say however that the Picks ended last season marginally down, (amazing though that may sound), for the first loss in 5 years.

I could whine that the season was incomplete and we would have made the loss up by end of season. After all we were in healthy profit all season until a terrible February dipped us under. But then I would sound like a bitter old sow from Edinburgh. So we take our loss and move on.

It’s going to be a tough season to come out on top this year. The Pigs favoured source of bacon is in the midden of the lower Scottish leagues. These won’t kick off until October so for now we shall just have to make do scratching fir value in the 6 Premiership games.

Still – we have 4 picks today.

St Mirren are second favourites to Livingston at home, at 5/2. Although I think a low or no scoring draw is highly likely here, the price gives us just enough value against a Livi side who shouldn’t be fancied to repeat last season’s performances.

With Jack Ross I fancy Hibs to have a decent season. They’ve made a few useful recruits and in a home opener against Kilmarnock I fancy them to get off to a good start.

Completing a Tasty Treble is Motherwell away to Ross County at 13/10. Motherwell have strengthened, Ross County have weakened – 13/10 would have been generous last season. Thanks.

And we can even stretch to a 4 fold. I fancy Dundee Utd to continue momentum in their opener against a St Johnstone side which aren’t doing much to suggest they’ll be a force this season.

Might be over betting there with 4 picks out of 6 but fuck it – it’s the new season! Fancy the Old Firm too but their value is really poor.

Lastly – there’s very little ante-post betting available but there are a few Premiership markets worth getting involved with.

I’m taking Rangers for the league. For much of last season they were better than Celtic and I don’t think there is too much between them. Have a feeling Gerrard will get the extra the needs to foil ten in a row. And I’ll put a small stake on St Mirren for a top 6 finish. That might be too much if a stretch but they shouldn’t be second favourites for the drop so we get some value at 6/1.

That’s all folks! Happy New Season!

In summary:

2 points – St Mitten @ 5/2
2 points – Motherwell @ 13/10
1 point – Hibernian @ 11/10
1 point – Dundee Utd @ 9/5

Ante-post

2 points – Rangers to win Premiership @ 9/4
0.5 points – St Mitten top 6 @ 6/1