Fakes to win a boarfest

Only one pick today. Livingston have been very unpredictable this season and I expect a turgid affair at Almondvale against a well organised St Johnstone side. However the fake Saints have been decent performers so far this season so I think this game can go either way. St Johstones price of 9/4 is too high.

I’m almost tempted to take a chance on the high prices of St Mirren and Hamilton at home but am going to resist. Saints are without a recognised left back and Tait has probably been their top performer so far this season. Hamilton are also pish, so even 3/1 isn’t tempting enough against an average Dundee Utd side.

2 points – St Johnstone @ 9/4

Bacon Double

Strongly fancied double today. St Johnstone have started the season well, perhaps little pug-face will be a better manager than expected. Ross County are quite unpredictable, but they shouldn’t be above St Johnstone in the league and I expect that should be rectified today. Kilmarnock have probably been a bit unfortunate so far and have a decent pool of players but they need to start picking up points. If they can’t beat Hamilton at home then perhaps they have something to worry about. I fully expect a home win here, Hamilton have sprung a couple of surprises lately which has added a bit to the value.

Elsewhere I’m betting on Celtic to win to nil although I’m not entirely comfortable with it. Their defence has been far from convincing, our bet in midweek was down after just 2 minutes against an impotent St Mirren, and Ross County should aruably have had 3 past them up in Dingwall. But they are working to a new system and are at home here against Livingston. Although Livi do tend to show up well against the Old Firm, we should not expect them to get much of a sniff on the wide expanse of grass in the Twilight Zone, even without any creatures lurking in the stands.

Lastly, after much deliberation I’m going to leave Dundee Utd off the list. Earlier in week they felt like a banker to me, and they sat at 7/5. Dundee Utd have been strong in most of their games this year and are still in bouyant mood after last years title win. St Mirren have yet to get going, only Hamilton look worse. However if I compare the squads, the price is just too short. Goodwin has been tinkering around with a new set of players, and they really should improve at some point. We’ll leave it alone.

Bacon Double:
2 points – St Johnstone @ 6/5
2 points – Kilmarnock @ 17/20

1 point – Celtic to win to nil @ 10/11

Pig in mix

A mixed bag of not much today.

I’m going for our trusted “Rangers to win to nil” bet which has served us well thus far – I think there’s a good chance they will break the shut out record today.

Celtcs defence is a bit shoogly, I think there is a fair chance Ross County could get a goal. But not a win. Celtic BTTS – 9/5.

Aside from that I’m putting minor stakes on major upsets. Aberdeen haven’t been particularly impressive, and Kilmarnock a bit unlucky so 4/1 offers a little value.

I think Livingston should win a turgid affair but I can’t accept them being certainties and Hamiltons price and resilience make them worth a small punt.

Lastly after much deliberation I will also stake small on St Mirrren causing an upset at home to Hibs. To be clear – Saints have been sh1t so far, I’d say only Hamilton have been worse. But Hibs are over cooked and I think we will see imporvement in Saints – with the players they have they should not be as bad as they are. Saints price has drifted significantly since losing all 3 keepers but I’m putting faith in us having something sorted out before kick off. Something that isn’t Jamie Langfield.

1 point – Rangers to win to nil @ 4/5
1 point – Celtic BTTS @ 9/5
0.5 points – Kilmarnock @ 4/1
0.5 points – Hamilton @ 11/2
0.5 points – St Mirren @ 4/1

Scotland Special

Putting a bet on Scotland tonight.

I think we are getting some value from the understandable pessimism borne out of years of Scotland making an arse of themselves in every way possible. This would be a new way to try, so right up our street.

But let’s keep our heads here. This is at best, the third string Czech Republic team, probably fourth. Practically none of them have international experience, and they’ve been cobbled together in two games with a new set of coaches.

We have to take 17/20.

2 points – Scotland @ 17/20

Nations League Non-Entities Special!

Venturing into the unknown a bit here, but we’ll dip our hoof into the water and see how we get on.

Been nothing to bet on all weekend, but a couple of Nations Lageus games catch my eye tonight.

Serbia will feel aggrieved after a good performance in Russia yielded no reward, and the Turkish resurgence in the last Euros campaign doesn’t look to be sustainetd going by recent performances. I like Serbia at evens, they are a strong side.

Kosovo have had few bad performances since their inception 4 years ago. I can’t say I know much about their players, but as a team they seem to be effective. Nothing to suggest that the Greeks should be paryicularly fearsome, 13/5 seems generous.

1 point – Serbia @ 19/20
1 point – Kosovo @ 13/5

Pigs breakfast

Havering either way on Scotlands opening Nations League match against Israel tonight, and Scotland price has rightly drifted on the pigs breakfast of a team that Stevie Clarke has just served up.

Scotland have more quality players in their line up, however on balance I think the quality of the Israeli strikeforce makes 17/5 worth a punt. They have strikers playing in the Bundesliga and with Shakhtar Donetsk, we have Lyndon Dykes. 17/5 doesn’t seem right.

We’ll take a punt at short stakes.

0.5 points – Israel @ 17/5